By Anna Szymanski
What matters in U.S. and global markets today
By Anna Szymanski, Editor-in-Charge, Reuters Commentary
Trading in global markets was fairly quiet at the start of this central bank-packed week, with holidays today in Britain, Hong Kong, China, Japan and South Korea. But the oil market has garnered headlines, with prices falling more than 2% on Monday after oil producing group OPEC+ agreed to accelerate oil production hikes.
Mike is off for the UK bank holiday, but check out his latest column about the deep gulf in Federal Reserve rate forecasts, which are clouding an already uncertain U.S. economic outlook.
Today’s Market Minute
* Oil prices fell more than $1 a barrel on Monday as OPEC+ is set to further speed up oil output hikes, spurring concerns about more supply coming into a market struggling with an unclear demand outlook. For more on this story, check out Reuters’ columnist Clyde Russell’s piece on why the OPEC+ group’s stated reasons for supply increase are likely not the real reasons.
* Berkshire Hathaway shareholders mourning the departure of legendary investor Warren Buffett anticipate the conglomerate he built over 60 years will retain its long-term focus and culture but worry about the loss of Buffett’s vision and star power.
* U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday announced a 100% tariff on movies produced outside the country, saying the American movie industry was dying a “very fast death” due to the incentives that other countries were offering to lure filmmakers.
* President Trump said he will not remove Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Board Chairman before his term ends in May 2026 while describing the central banker as “a total stiff” and repeating calls for the Fed to lower interest rates.
* Australia’s Anthony Albanese claimed a historic second term as prime minister on Saturday in a dramatic comeback against once-resurgent conservatives that was powered by voters’ concerns about the influence of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Crude awakening
Brent crude and U.S. West Texas crude futures both fell more than $1 a barrel after the weekend announcement that OPEC+ would speed up oil output hikes. The group is adding more supply at a time when the oil demand outlook is highly uncertain.
This week all eyes will be on the meetings of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as investors try to assess how major central banks’ outlooks for growth and inflation have been impacted by the erratic U.S. tariff policy.
Staying on trade, President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the United States was meeting with many countries, including China, on trade deals. He noted that his main priority with China was to secure a fair deal.
Investor optimism about potential de-escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China has boosted markets in recent days.
Europe’s broad STOXX 600 index is up around 15% from lows hit last month, while the S&P 500 index has rebounded around 17% from its lows last month following Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement.
In currency markets, the Taiwan dollar was poised for its biggest one-day gain against the U.S. dollar since the 1980s, rising to as high as 29.59 per U.S. dollar.
Its 3% surge on Monday has increased speculation that some Asian countries could allow their currencies to strengthen against the U.S. dollar to win trade concessions from the Trump administration.
However, Taiwan’s office of trade negotiations said on Monday that tariff talks with the U.S. last week did not discuss the exchange rate and Taiwan’s central bank also did not take part in the talks.
Chart of the day
Friday’s relatively robust April payrolls report surprised some by showing overall government hiring up by 10,000, with federal government employment only down 9,000 for the month and down 26,000 since January amid the Trump administration’s campaign to drastically shrink the government.
Despite headlines of mass firings at government agencies, the decline in federal payrolls has been relatively modest and Federal jobs as a percentage of the workforce remained unchanged at 1.5% last month. That is partly because fired employees who have been reinstated by court and subsequently put on paid leave are counted as employed. The same applies to those who have accepted buyout offers. Economists expect federal payrolls to drop significantly after September, when severance pay runs out for many.
Today’s events to watch
* U.S. April service sector surveys from S&P Global (9:45EDT) and ISM (10:00EDT), April employment trends (10:00EDT)
* U.S. corporate earnings: Ford, Loews, Tyson Foods, Clorox, Palantir, Vertex, Diamondback, Coterra, Williams, ON Semiconductor, Cummins, Simmer Biomet, Henry Schein
* U.S. Treasury sells $58 billion of 3-year notes
(Writing by Anna Szymanski; anna.szymanski@thomsonreuters.com)
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